By Kritika Agarwal
The United States remained the world’s largest research and development (R&D) enterprise in 2023, according to a new report from the National Science Board. But as the Trump administration pulls back on research investments and other nations accelerate spending, continued U.S. dominance in science and technology is increasingly uncertain and can no longer be taken for granted.
In 2023, the United States spent nearly $940 billion in R&D across all sectors of the economy. When measured in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) dollars, the United States invested $923 billion in gross domestic expenditures on R&D (GERD) in 2022, a 12% increase from 2021. (PPP dollars help economists compare money from different countries by looking at what people can actually buy with it in their own country; one PPP dollar has the same buying power in the United States as it does in another country, such as China.)
According to NSB, China recorded the second-highest GERD in 2022 after the United States at $812 billion, “up 16% in current PPP dollars from 2021.” This indicates that China’s expenditures on R&D are increasing at a faster rate than that of the United States. While more recent data is not available, China continues to set aggressive targets for R&D investment – including a 10% increase announced earlier this year.
China already outperforms the United States when it comes to producing peer-reviewed research publications; according to NSB, “China’s publication output has grown rapidly since 2003 and is now more than twice that of the United States.” As the NSB explains, “Research publications are an early output of R&D activity, especially academic R&D, and an important medium for disseminating and sharing scientific discoveries.”
When it comes to “highly cited articles” – typically defined as the top 1% of articles that have received the most citations and that are, therefore, considered to be the most influential – the United States continues to lead, but the gap with China is narrowing.
In 2022, 1.7% of peer-reviewed publications from U.S. authors were on the list of “highly cited articles.” The NSB notes, however, that this is the lowest U.S. share of highly cited articles since 2006. Meanwhile, China’s share of these highly cited articles has risen steadily, from 0.4% in 2006 to 1.3% in 2022. This shows that, while American researchers still generate a disproportionate share of the most influential work, Chinese researchers are rapidly catching up.
The NSB report also shows that U.S. researchers contributed to more internationally coauthored articles than researchers from any other country. International collaboration is increasingly important to scientific progress; as the NSB notes, “International collaboration can build a robust S&E [science and engineering] workforce, [and] increase scientific capabilities and cooperation … including in emerging and critical technologies.”
According to the NSB, the percentage of scientific publications coauthored by researchers from different countries has risen steadily globally – growing from 19% in 2012 to 22% in 2023. U.S. researchers collaborated most frequently with researchers in China, although, the NSB noted, “collaborations with authors based in China have decreased since 2019.”
In addition to international comparisons, the NSB report also provides insights into the overall state of the U.S. R&D enterprise. The report found that the business sector funded 75% of total R&D performed in the country; the federal government funded 18%.
Further, the business sector is funding an increasing share of basic research performed in the United States. “Basic research” refers to research that seeks to expand fundamental knowledge without an immediate practical application in mind, but which could lead to major scientific and medical breakthroughs down the road.
According to the report, “Between 2012 and 2023, the share of basic research performed across all sectors funded by businesses grew from 21% to an estimated 35%, while the federal government’s share of basic research funding decreased from 52% to 41%.” Businesses spent most of their research dollars in fields such as biotechnology, software technologies, and artificial intelligence. Businesses also performed most of their own R&D internally; federally funded R&D, meanwhile, is mostly performed externally by universities, businesses, and nonprofit research organizations.
While the United States still retains an edge over competitor nations in science and technology innovation, sustaining this leadership requires continued federal investments in research as well as smart policies that nurture scientific talent, basic science, and international collaboration.
Unfortunately, the Trump administration has proposed steep cuts to scientific research. An analysis released by the American Association for the Advancement of Science earlier this month showed that President Trump’s FY26 budget proposal would reduce federal spending on R&D by nearly a quarter (-22%) compared to last year.
Meanwhile other nations are stepping up to fill the void they anticipate being created by a U.S. retreat in scientific funding. Just recently, Nature reported that the Spanish government is pledging $470 million to bring the Thirty Meter Telescope, “a major international project long slated for construction in Hawaii” to the Canary Islands after the Trump administration announced “plans to abandon further support for the telescope, as part of its proposals to slash by half funding for the US National Science Foundation.”
The European Commission also recently released plans to double its investments in Horizon Europe, the European Union’s flagship program for research and innovation. Meanwhile, Chinese institutions are increasingly targeting U.S. students and researchers for recruitment as the Trump administration threatens visa revocations and increased scrutiny for international students.
Without renewed commitment and investment, the United States risks ceding its leadership in science and technology to nations that are eager – and increasingly ready – to take its place.
Kritika Agarwal is assistant vice president for communications at AAU.